Will the upcoming presidential election affect the real estate market?

When I published a second quarter report of how 4 Buyers Real Estate was doing in the strong seller’s market, I mentioned some hopeful signs. Among them was this:

Typically, housing sales volume goes down just before a Presidential election. Expect that will happen this September and October.

Now that September is behind us, I took a look at our core market area. Our agents reported higher numbers of listings, and the data bears this out. Median and average prices are also lower. We are also seeing some properties linger on the market; these are the types of places that we expected to see gone after a weekend.

I am waiting-and-seeing. But, there are signs of higher inventory, for sure. However, lower buyer demand is just a feeling not borne out by statistics. Here’s what our MLS system tells us about September activity:

 

Report Run: 9/30/2016 1:13:45 PM Property Type(s): SF, CC, MF Snapshot Date: 8/30/2016 Towns: Cambridge, Arlington, Belmont, Somerville, Watertown

8/30/2016  9/30/2016 Price Range Number of Listings Avg. Days on Market vs. today Number of Listings Avg. Days on Market Under $50,000 – – – – $50,000 – $99,999 – – – – $100,000 – $149,999 – – – – $150,000 – $199,999 1 84 1 114 $200,000 – $249,999 2 66 2 82 $250,000 – $299,999 2 42 1 8 $300,000 – $349,999 – – 3 13 $350,000 – $399,999 2 30 8 10 $400,000 – $449,999 4 26 10 20 $450,000 – $499,999 6 12 16 15 $500,000 – $599,999 19 39 37 38 $600,000 – $699,999 30 40 52 27 $700,000 – $799,999 25 51 45 35 $800,000 – $899,999 17 40 28 46 $900,000 – $999,999 19 66 23 39 $1,000,000 – $1,499,999 45 55 57 53 $1,500,000 – $1,999,999 18 98 19 66 $2,000,000 – $2,499,999 5 150 12 68 $2,500,000 – $2,999,999 2 86 3 30 $3,000,000 – $3,999,999 5 46 7 51 $4,000,000 – $4,999,999 3 208 4 183 $5,000,000 – $9,999,999 2 55 1 141 Over $10,000,000 2 50 2 81 Total Properties 209 Avg. 57 331 Avg. 42 Lowest Price: $185,000 Median Price: $899,000 Highest Price: $23,750,000 Average Price: $1,301,009 Total Market Volume: $271,910,972 Lowest Price: $195,000 Median Price: $798,000 Highest Price: $23,750,000 Average Price: $1,133,008 Total Market Volume: $375,025,832